Science Is On The Top Of A UPLB Professor’s Mind. So, It Asks: “Is The Continued Quarantine Justified?”

Belated “Happy Birthday,” Mr President! (28 March 2021). Sorry to spoil your birthday, but the World Bank has spoken: “PHL Reliance On Prolonged Lockdowns Caused Economic Deterioration – WB[1]” (Louise Maureen Simeon, 27 March 2021, The Philippine Star). Carolina Figueroa-Geron, who shared that on Facebook; I read somewhere someone's wishes, “May our Lord Jesus Christ enlighten our darkness! God bless us!”

Miss Louise quotes the World Bank as saying:

The Philippines relied more on prolonged restrictions on mobility rather than an effective test-based strategy. Countries with greater quarterly growth contraction in 2020 had higher infection rates, imposed more stringent mobility restrictions, had more highly indebted governments and were more dependent on earnings from tourism.

Because of mass testing, mobility restrictions were not as severe, resulting in gross domestic product growth for Vietnam (2.9 percent), China (2.3 percent) and Laos (0.4 percent) in 2020. Cambodia’s GDP also contracted, but only by 3.1 percent, and Malaysia by 5.6 percent. The Philippine economy, on the other hand, shrank 9.5 percent, its worst in several decades and the sharpest drop in the region.

Yet, as a science writer, I am more interested in logic than statistics, so I leave the World Bank news to you, and I concentrate on what retired UPLB chemistry professor Carlito “Charlie” Barril (inset image above) says on Facebook on the lockdown. A UPLB alumnus, I agree with him.

Mr Barril says, “DoH data show there is actually no Covid pandemic in RP,” giving 5 proofs (facts), which I edit a little:

Fact #1. DoH data show that more than 98% of reported cases were non-Covid, being mild and asymptomatic. The remaining 2%? Mostly pneumonia, influenza, asthma, etc.

Fact #2. Every Sunday, a big number of recoveries is reported from the ranks of mild and asymptomatic. Today, 28 March 2021, DoH reported total recoveries of 22,000. The highest total recoveries of 40,392 was reported 16 August 2020.

Fact #3. After one year, the number of deaths reported is just 13,170. Even if all these deaths were attributed to Covid, THIS IS VERY LOW compared to the annual deaths of more than 60,000 (2016 data) for flu and pneumonia. Yet we do not lockdown the people due to these diseases.

Fact #4. Total number for RP of 5,705 cases/M is way below the level considered epidemic or pandemic. RP is just 6.3% of that of the USA with 90,853 cases/M. If the mild and asymptomatic cases were removed, the value for RP becomes even lower at 0.13% of that of the USA. This comparison becomes even more significant considering that RP’s population density is much higher than that of the USA.

Fact #5. Another indicator that the Covid situation in RP is just hysteria is the percentage of recovery, which is as high as 93% for RP compared to 64% for the USA and 70% for the world.

Based on the above facts, it is clear that there is actually no Covid pandemic in RP and the continued quarantine is therefore not justified!@517


[1]https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/03/27/2087356/philippines-reliance-prolonged-lockdowns-caused-economic-deterioration-wb

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